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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model