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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP