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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(14:39) (No Huddle) 30-J.Warren right guard to MIA 46 for 4 yards (52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model