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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.12 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -1.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model