4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

SEA
48.1%
LAC
51.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SEA

Isaiah Dunn CB Out Hamstring
Artie Burns CB Doubtful Groin
Penny Hart WR Doubtful Hamstring
Gabe Jackson G Doubtful Knee
Joey Blount S Questionable Illness
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Hamstring
Sidney Jones CB Questionable Groin

LAC

Dustin Hopkins K Out right Hamstring
Joshua Kelley RB Out Knee
Josh Palmer WR Out Concussion
Donald Parham TE Out Concussion
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Hamstring
Sebastian Joseph DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 37
–
LAC 23

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:35 TD SEA (7:35) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-M.Goodwin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 04:23 TD SEA (4:23) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – LAC 0
  • Q1 01:13 FG SEA (1:13) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – LAC 0
  • Q2 12:50 TD LAC (12:50) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – LAC 6
  • Q2 09:43 TD LAC (9:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – LAC 13
  • Q2 01:46 TD SEA (1:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-27-J.Jackson was injured during the play. SEA 23 – LAC 14
  • Q3 01:10 FG SEA (1:10) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 27 – LAC 14
  • Q4 14:20 SAF LAC (14:20) 9-K.Walker left guard tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (69-S.Joseph, 42-T.Reeder). SEA 27 – LAC 16
  • Q4 09:13 FG SEA (9:13) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 30 – LAC 16
  • Q4 07:08 TD SEA (7:08) 9-K.Walker right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 36 – LAC 16
  • Q4 03:26 TD LAC (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 37 – LAC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 77%

    (11:49) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to SEA 32 for no gain (26-R.Neal; 53-B.Mafe).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 19 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%

    (1:13) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter. PENALTY on SEA-35-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 27 for no gain (36-J.Taylor, 47-J.Harris).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:34) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (11:36) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to SEA 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (1:10) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 30%

    (14:34) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to SEA 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor. LAC-49-D.Tranquill was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:56) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SEA 37, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor. LAC-94-C.Rumph was injured during the play.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (9:13) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

    (7:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to SEA 26 for 12 yards (30-M.Jackson). LAC-81-M.Williams was injured during the play. Penalty on LAC-63-C.Linsley, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.