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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 27 for no gain (36-J.Taylor, 47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model