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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model