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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to SEA 32 for no gain (26-R.Neal; 53-B.Mafe).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.24 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model