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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(14:34) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to SEA 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor. LAC-49-D.Tranquill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model