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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Seattle Seahawks 37

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model