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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model