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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ARI
37.7%
MIN
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.004 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.099 EPA/dropback
  • MIN on 4 more days rest than ARI
  • ARI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ARI

James Conner RB Out Ribs
Max Garcia G Out Shoulder
Dennis Gardeck LB Out Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Out Knee
Christian Matthew CB Out Hamstring
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Back
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Back
Matt Prater K Questionable right Hip
Darrel Williams RB Questionable Knee

MIN

Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26
–
MIN 34

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:20 TD MIN (10:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:09 FG ARI (6:09) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – MIN 7
  • Q2 09:59 TD MIN (9:59) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Mundt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – MIN 13
  • Q2 00:50 TD ARI (:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – MIN 14
  • Q3 09:17 TD ARI (9:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – MIN 14
  • Q3 05:51 TD MIN (5:51) (Shotgun) 2-A.Mattison left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – MIN 20
  • Q3 04:11 TD MIN (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Cook up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – MIN 27
  • Q3 02:37 TD ARI (2:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-R.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – MIN 28
  • Q4 12:35 FG ARI (12:35) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 26 – MIN 28
  • Q4 08:41 TD MIN (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – MIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (6:09) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 64%

    (3:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (15:00) 14-A.Lee punts 37 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (5:54) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to MIN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 14 for 6 yards (56-B.Niemann). PENALTY on MIN-21-A.Evans, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIN 8.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:50) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to ARI 19, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 28 for 9 yards (25-T.Jackson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:23) 14-A.Lee punts 61 yards to MIN 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 25 for 6 yards (85-T.McBride).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (12:35) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:46) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-45-T.Dye at ARI 25.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:43) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ARI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 4 yards (26-K.Nwangwu).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 50%

    (2:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 26-E.Benjamin to MIN 41 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 30%

    (2:00) 14-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ARI 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.