4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-45-T.Dye at ARI 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model