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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.55 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model