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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +4.20 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.71 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model