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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-L.McCullough. 12-S.Smith pushed ob at CAR 39 for 30 yards (48-L.McCullough). PENALTY on CAR-55-C.Littleton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model