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Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CAR
32.3%
ATL
67.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Marcus Mariota (ATL) +0.106 vs Phillip Walker (CAR) -0.175 EPA/dropback
  • ATL defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 19
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CAR

Chuba Hubbard RB Out Ankle
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Ribs
Juston Burris S Questionable Hip
Marquis Haynes DE Questionable Illness
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Shoulder

ATL

Jaylinn Hawkins S Out Concussion
A.J. Terrell CB Out Hamstring
Dee Alford CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 34
–
ATL 37

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:54 FG CAR (6:54) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 10:18 TD ATL (10:18) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 04:56 TD CAR (4:56) (Shotgun) 33-D.Foreman left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – ATL 7
  • Q2 00:51 TD ATL (:51) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass short middle intended for 33-D.Foreman INTERCEPTED by 9-L.Carter at CAR 28. 9-L.Carter for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 13
  • Q3 11:38 FG CAR (11:38) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 13 – ATL 14
  • Q3 01:51 TD ATL (1:51) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – ATL 20
  • Q4 11:50 TD CAR (11:50) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – ATL 21
  • Q4 07:38 FG ATL (7:38) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 21 – ATL 24
  • Q4 03:12 TD CAR (3:12) 33-D.Foreman left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 27 – ATL 24
  • Q4 02:26 TD ATL (2:26) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 14-D.Byrd for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 28 – ATL 30
  • Q4 00:40 FG ATL (:40) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 28 – ATL 34
  • Q4 00:23 TD CAR (:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 34 – ATL 34
  • Q5 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) 7-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CAR 34 – ATL 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (6:54) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to CAR 6, Center-48-L.McCullough. 12-S.Smith to CAR 19 for 13 yards (23-E.Harris).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:23) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-L.McCullough. 12-S.Smith pushed ob at CAR 39 for 30 yards (48-L.McCullough). PENALTY on CAR-55-C.Littleton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (11:38) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-48-L.McCullough. 12-S.Smith to CAR 28 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on CAR-24-C.Henderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 27.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 38 for 19 yards (42-S.Franklin). ATL-28-M.Ford was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (11:50) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (7:38) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (37-D.Alford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (:40) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.