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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model