Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-48-L.McCullough. 12-S.Smith to CAR 28 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford). PENALTY on CAR-24-C.Henderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model