Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 38 for 19 yards (42-S.Franklin). ATL-28-M.Ford was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model