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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model