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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model