Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 31

(1:45) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (37-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP