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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Carolina Panthers 28

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model