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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to CAR 6, Center-48-L.McCullough. 12-S.Smith to CAR 19 for 13 yards (23-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model