Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(1:23) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model