4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to JAX 27 for no gain (20-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model