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Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DEN
42.5%
JAX
57.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • DEN offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN crossing 7 time zone(s)
  • DEN defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DEN

Essang Bassey CB Out Hamstring
Baron Browning LB Out Hip
Tyrie Cleveland WR Out Groin
Cameron Fleming T Out Quadricep
Caden Sterns S Out Hip
P.J. Locke S Questionable Hamstring

JAX

Tevaughn Campbell CB Out Not injury related - did not travel
Tyree Gillespie S Out Not injury related - did not travel
Adam Gotsis DE Out Not injury related - did not travel
Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 21
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:46 TD JAX (7:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 08:46 FG JAX (8:46) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. DEN 0 – JAX 10
  • Q2 02:50 TD DEN (2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – JAX 10
  • Q3 05:10 TD DEN (5:10) 60-L.Wattenberg reported in as eligible. 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – JAX 10
  • Q4 03:57 TD JAX (3:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – JAX 16
  • Q4 01:47 TD DEN (1:47) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – JAX 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:35) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Washington to DEN 17 for 6 yards (42-A.Wingard; 20-D.Thomas).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:12) 17-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to JAX 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to JAX 27 for no gain (20-D.Phillips).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (8:46) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 64%

    (5:23) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to JAX 34 for 2 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris; 33-D.Lloyd).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 55
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 24%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 36%

    (9:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to DEN 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Washington to DEN 25 for 12 yards (50-S.Quarterman).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:41) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to JAX 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to JAX 39 for 9 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:04) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to JAX 29 for 6 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 33%

    (8:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Washington to DEN 7 for 1 yard (6-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to JAX 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 13-C.Kirk to DEN 47 for 10 yards (50-J.Griffith; 48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 84%

    (:36) 3-R.Wilson right guard to JAX 25 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.