Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 81

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(13:35) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model