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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model