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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 36

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to JAX 34 for 2 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris; 33-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model