Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 55

Denver Broncos 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP

What Happened

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.59 EP
76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -0.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP