Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 7

(9:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to DEN 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.97 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP

KICK -1.17 EP

32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model