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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Washington to DEN 17 for 6 yards (42-A.Wingard; 20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model