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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Washington to DEN 25 for 12 yards (50-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model