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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Washington to DEN 7 for 1 yard (6-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model