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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 26

Denver Broncos 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(:36) 3-R.Wilson right guard to JAX 25 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.19 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.47 EP