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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 17-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to JAX 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model