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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to GB 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 28 for 3 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model