GB @ BUF — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur

Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott

Sunday 2022-10-30 · 20:20 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

18.9%

BUF

81.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BUF offense: +0.270 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
Josh Allen (BUF): +0.286 EPA/dropback in prior starts
GB offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
BUF on 7 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

GB 18

–

BUF 30

Projected margin: BUF by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

GB

Shemar Jean-Charles CB Out Ankle

Allen Lazard WR Out Shoulder

Rashan Gary LB Questionable Concussion

David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee

Elgton Jenkins G Questionable Knee

Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring

BUF

Spencer Brown T Out Ankle

Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17

–

BUF 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:40 TD BUF (3:40) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – BUF 6
Q2 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Reed]. GB 0 – BUF 13
Q2 06:21 TD GB (6:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – BUF 14
Q2 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) 6-I.McKenzie left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – BUF 20
Q2 00:03 FG BUF (:03) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. GB 7 – BUF 24
Q3 10:24 FG GB (10:24) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. GB 10 – BUF 24
Q3 06:03 FG BUF (6:03) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. GB 10 – BUF 27
Q4 06:42 TD GB (6:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-S.Toure for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – BUF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55%

(14:11) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to GB 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 28 for 3 yards (33-S.Neal).
Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 61%

(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(1:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to BUF 32, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 49 for 17 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 27-P.Taylor).
Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(1:01) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to BUF 20, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
Q3 GB 4th & 13 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

(10:24) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 19

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

(6:03) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 26

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%

(14:16) 33-A.Jones up the middle to BUF 27 for -1 yards (7-T.Johnson).
Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 46 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 40%

(2:42) 8-S.Martin punts 29 yards to GB 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.
Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 37 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

(:43) 2-M.Crosby 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.