Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

(1:01) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to BUF 20, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.13 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model