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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 7 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model