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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 10 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 33-A.Jones up the middle to BUF 27 for -1 yards (7-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.24 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model