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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 27 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 8-S.Martin punts 29 yards to GB 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model