Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(1:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to BUF 32, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 49 for 17 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 27-P.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model