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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.97 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP