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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-10-30 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LV
47.7%
NO
52.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (NO): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NO starting Jameis Winston in place of Andy Dalton)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NO on 3 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

LV 23
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

LV

Johnathan Abram S Questionable Illness
Davante Adams WR Questionable Illness
Tashawn Bower DE Questionable Illness
Divine Deablo LB Questionable Back
Mack Hollins WR Questionable Heel
D.J. Turner WR Questionable Hamstring
Darren Waller TE Questionable Hamstring

NO

Jarvis Landry WR Out Ankle
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Michael Thomas WR Out Foot
David Onyemata DT Questionable Illness
Paulson Adebo CB Questionable Knee
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Hamstring
Andrus Peat G Questionable Chest
Adam Trautman TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 0
–
NO 24

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:36 TD NO (1:36) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – NO 6
  • Q2 12:47 FG NO (12:47) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. LV 0 – NO 10
  • Q2 07:23 TD NO (7:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 14 LV 0 – NO 16
  • Q3 11:12 TD NO (11:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:30) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NO 23, Center-47-T.Sieg. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 33 for 10 yards (80-J.Horsted).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:58) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to LV 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-D.Turner to LV 16 for 3 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:22) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NO 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 41-M.Farley right end to LV 42 for -3 yards (29-P.Adebo). PENALTY on LV-34-B.Bolden, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (12:47) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 32%

    (3:11) 6-A.Cole punts 35 yards to NO 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on LV-47-T.Sieg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 16.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (:09) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:57) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 18 for 5 yards (41-M.Farley; 22-A.Abdullah). INJURY UPDATE: NO 22-M.Ingram, knee, OUT.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%

    (2:59) 4-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to LV 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:56) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to NO 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 14.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 77%

    (3:40) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 47%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short right to 10-M.Hollins to NO 38 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner). Pass 4, YAC 3

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 80%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 84-K.Cole to NO 18 for 12 yards (32-T.Mathieu). Pass 5, YAC 7