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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NO 23, Center-47-T.Sieg. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 33 for 10 yards (80-J.Horsted).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model