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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 6-A.Cole punts 35 yards to NO 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on LV-47-T.Sieg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.62 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP