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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 4-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to LV 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP